Quick reference
The 4% rule — the foundation of the number
The 4% rule originates from William Bengen's 1994 research and the subsequent Trinity Study (1998). These researchers examined historical US stock and bond returns from 1926 onwards and asked: what is the maximum annual withdrawal from a portfolio, expressed as a percentage of the initial balance, that never depleted the portfolio over any 30-year period in the historical record?
The answer was 4%. A portfolio invested 50% in US stocks and 50% in intermediate bonds could sustain 4% annual withdrawals — adjusted upward for inflation each year — for 30 years across essentially all historical periods tested. The rare failures occurred during the worst periods of market history (retiring just before the Great Depression or the 1970s stagflation).
Inverting 4% gives 25. If 4% of your portfolio covers your annual expenses, your portfolio is 25 times your annual expenses. This is the financial freedom number — the capital base at which you can, with high historical probability, live off your investments indefinitely without working.
For FIRE (Financial Independence, Retire Early) purposes — where the retirement period may be 40 to 60 years rather than 30 — some researchers recommend a lower withdrawal rate of 3 to 3,5%, implying a financial freedom number of 28,6 to 33 times annual expenses. The 4% rule was derived for a 30-year retirement; longer periods carry more sequence-of-returns risk.
Financial freedom number formula
Worked examples
FI number: 36.000 x 25 = 900.000. With net income 4.000/month and expenses 3.000, savings = 1.000/month = 12.000/year. At 7% real investment return, time to 900.000 from zero: approximately 27 years. Increasing savings to 1.500/month reduces timeline to approximately 22 years. Note: Dutch state pension (AOW) from age 67 reduces the required FI number for those planning to retire at traditional age — AOW of approximately 14.000 per year covers nearly 40% of the example expenses.
FI number: 72.000 x 25 = 1.800.000. Annual savings: 30.000. At 7% real return, 1.800.000 from zero takes approximately 28 years. Increasing savings to 3.500/month (42.000/year) reduces timeline to approximately 24 years. The absolute FI number is higher but the timeline is similar because the savings rate (savings/income) determines the speed, not the absolute amount.
FI number: 24.000 x 25 = 600.000. Saving 2.000/month = 24.000/year. At 7% real return: approximately 16 years to 600.000. This is the lean FIRE scenario — a frugal lifestyle with a low FI number combined with a high savings rate produces the shortest timeline. State pension at 67 would further reduce required portfolio or allow higher withdrawal rate.
FIRE Calculator
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FI number by annual expenses and withdrawal rate assumption
| Annual Expenses | 4% rule (×25) | 3,5% rule (×28,6) | 3% rule (×33) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20.000 | 500.000 | 571.000 | 667.000 | Very lean lifestyle |
| 30.000 | 750.000 | 857.000 | 1.000.000 | Single person, modest |
| 40.000 | 1.000.000 | 1.143.000 | 1.333.000 | Single, comfortable |
| 50.000 | 1.250.000 | 1.429.000 | 1.667.000 | Couple, modest |
| 70.000 | 1.750.000 | 2.000.000 | 2.333.000 | Couple, comfortable |
| 100.000 | 2.500.000 | 2.857.000 | 3.333.000 | High lifestyle |
Common mistakes with the financial freedom number
Methodology
FI number calculated as annual expenses divided by the safe withdrawal rate. 4% withdrawal rate from Bengen (1994) and Trinity Study (1998). Years to FI calculated using future value formula with annual contributions at stated real investment return. AOW figures from SVB (Sociale Verzekeringsbank) 2025 rates.
The 4% rule is based on US historical data. European investors should note that European stock market returns have historically been lower than US returns in some periods. A conservative European FIRE investor may prefer a 3 to 3,5% withdrawal rate and FI number of 28 to 33 times annual expenses.
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Frequently asked questions
Formula based on standard mathematical and financial methods. Results are for informational purposes. Last reviewed May 2026. Version 1.