🧠 Calquify Intelligence
France's CAC 40 was Europe's worst-performing major index in 2024 at -2.2%, the result of three overlapping headwinds: Macron's shock snap election (June 2024) causing OAT-Bund spread widening and market volatility, a China luxury slowdown crushing LVMH and Kering, and the French fiscal deficit (approximately 6% of GDP) prompting credit rating downgrades — a perfect storm for the Paris market
CAC 40 2024 decomposition: political risk contribution (June-July snap election): approximately -5 to -7% relative to European peers during election uncertainty; LVMH drag (12% CAC weight; -12% stock): approximately -1.4 percentage points direct index impact; Kering drag (3% weight; -37%): approximately -1.1pp; Airbus drag (5% weight; -12%): approximately -0.6pp; BNP Paribas drag (OAT spread widening; -8%): approximately -0.4pp. Partially offset by: TotalEnergies (+8%; 8% weight): approximately +0.6pp; Sanofi (+25%; 5% weight): approximately +1.25pp; Safran (+35%; 3% weight): approximately +1.05pp. Net result: -2.2% price return. Macron's June 9 snap election call: French OAT-Bund spread immediately widened from approximately 50bp to 85bp — bond market repriced France political risk; French equity P/E contracted as risk premium rose; foreign institutional investors reduced French equity allocation. France is increasingly treated as a European 'peripheral' risk rather than a core Eurozone market — a significant reputational shift from its pre-2024 status.
Source: Bloomberg CAC 40 constituent attribution 2024; Euronext Paris market report; Agence France Trésor OAT spread data; BNP Paribas French equity strategy
LVMH's -12% in 2024 (and -25% from its 2023 peak) marks the most significant correction in the stock's modern history outside the COVID crash — driven by a structural slowdown in Chinese luxury spending that has challenged the entire European luxury sector's growth narrative of perpetual Asia-Pacific expansion
LVMH market cap peak: approximately €400bn (April 2023). Q3 2025: approximately €280-300bn (-25-30%). LVMH brands: Louis Vuitton (approximately 40% of LVMH profits); Christian Dior; Hennessy/Moët (spirits); Bulgari; TAG Heuer; Sephora. China luxury demand drivers and slowdown: peak Chinese luxury spending correlated with: property wealth effect (China Evergrande collapse 2021 → property deflation → luxury confidence fall); Xi Jinping 'common prosperity' narrative (discouraging ostentatious spending from 2021); COVID wealth effects unwinding; hainan duty-free alternatives (Chinese shopping domestically at competitive prices). LVMH H1 2024 organic revenue growth: Japan +57% (yen weakness making Japan 40% cheaper for Chinese tourists who flew to Japan to buy luxury — eliminating China demand while adding Japan); Asia ex-Japan -6%; US +2%; Europe +4%. The 'Japan effect' is extraordinary — LVMH benefited from yen weakness creating a tourist luxury shopping destination, while Chinese domestic luxury demand collapsed simultaneously. LVMH guidance for 2025: expecting Asia normalisation but no return to 2021-2022 peak growth rates.
Source: LVMH H1 2024 results; Bain & Company Luxury Study 2024; Bloomberg LVMH share price history; Kering CEO Christian Courrèges Q3 statements
TotalEnergies and Sanofi were the two largest positive contributors to CAC 40 performance in 2024 — together contributing approximately +1.8 percentage points of positive return that partially offset the luxury sector drag — and both represent a structural argument for France's non-luxury industrial and healthcare sectors as alternatives to the China-exposed luxury names that dominate index perception
TotalEnergies 2024: +8% total return; approximately 8% CAC weight → approximately +0.6pp CAC contribution. TotalEnergies is a global integrated energy company (oil, LNG, renewables) — its Paris listing disguises the fact that it is one of the world's 5 largest energy companies with global operations. TotalEnergies has been aggressive in its LNG expansion (QatarEnergy partnership; ADNOC partnership in UAE) while also leading European integrated companies in renewables investment (offshore wind, solar). Sanofi 2024: +25%; approximately 5% weight → approximately +1.25pp. Sanofi benefited from: Dupixent (dupilumab, atopic dermatitis/asthma biologic) continued outperformance; approximately €15bn+ 2024 revenue; 2030 guidance reiterated; clinical pipeline catalysts. Dupixent's differentiated mechanism (IL-4/IL-13 blockade) has expanded indications — making it one of Europe's highest-revenue pharmaceutical products and a platform for further indication expansions. Safran: aerospace components (CFM engines, landing gear) — benefited from global aviation recovery and record commercial aircraft order backlogs at Airbus (despite Airbus stock falling -12% on delivery delays).
Source: TotalEnergies Q4 2024 results; Sanofi annual report 2024; Bloomberg CAC 40 attribution analysis; Safran investor relations 2024
CAC 40 Annual Price Return 2015-2024 (%)
Euronext + Bloomberg
📋 Reference Data
CAC 40 Annual Performance History
Euronext + Bloomberg data
| Year | Price Return | Total Return (GR) | Key Driver | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | -2,2% | ~+2,0% | Snap election; luxury China slowdown; fiscal deficit | Worst major EU index; political risk + sector headwinds |
| 2023 | +16,5% | ~+20,0% | Recovery; luxury peak; AI names up; macro stabilisation | Strong year; before political disruption |
| 2022 | -9,5% | ~-6,0% | Russia-Ukraine; energy crisis; rate hikes | Defensive sectors (luxury) outperformed early then fell |
| 2021 | +28,9% | ~+32,5% | Post-COVID luxury boom; travel reopening; low rates | Exceptional year; LVMH +42%; luxury surge |
| 2020 | -7,1% | ~-3,5% | COVID crash; V-shaped recovery partially | Lockdown hit restaurants, tourism, luxury |
| 2019 | +26,4% | ~+30,0% | Trade truce; ECB stimulus; luxury boom begins | Excellent year; broad rally |
| 2018 | -10,9% | ~-7,5% | Trade war; Italy crisis; Q4 global selloff | Difficult year; political concerns |
ⓘ All EUR de-DE. CAC 40 default is price-only index. CAC 40 GR (Gross Return) includes dividends — use GR for total return comparisons with DAX (which is already a performance index). Dividend yield approximately 3.5%/year means GR significantly exceeds price return most years. 2021 exceptional luxury performance (+28.9% price): LVMH drove approximately 8 percentage points of this return as Chinese luxury demand surged and travel reopened. The reversal from 2021's luxury peak to 2024's luxury decline is one of the most dramatic sector rotations in European equity history.
CAC 40 Top Constituents — 2024 Return Attribution
Bloomberg + Euronext 2024
| Company | Weight | 2024 Return | CAC Attribution | Sector | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LVMH | ~12% | -12% | -1,4pp | Luxury | China luxury slowdown; tourist redirect to Japan |
| Hermès | ~10% | +5% | +0,5pp | Luxury | More resilient; limited supply model; slight China exposure |
| TotalEnergies | ~8% | +8% | +0,6pp | Energy | LNG expansion; ADNOC; renewables; strong Q4 |
| Sanofi | ~5% | +25% | +1,25pp | Healthcare | Dupixent outperformance; pipeline; guidance reiterated |
| L'Oréal | ~5% | -5% | -0,25pp | Beauty | China slowdown; APAC revenue pressure; FX headwinds |
| Safran | ~4% | +35% | +1,4pp | Aerospace | Aviation recovery; CFM56 services; LEAP engine demand |
| Airbus | ~4% | -12% | -0,5pp | Aerospace | Supply chain delays; Spirit AeroSystems crisis; delivery shortfall |
| BNP Paribas | ~4% | -8% | -0,3pp | Banking | OAT-Bund spread; French fiscal concerns; NII pressure |
| AXA | ~4% | +15% | +0,6pp | Insurance | Strong earnings; dividend growth; combined ratio improving |
| Kering | ~3% | -37% | -1,1pp | Luxury | Gucci crisis; CEO exit; Chinese wholesale collapse |
ⓘ Attribution = weight × return = approximate index contribution in percentage points. Top 10 shown; CAC 40 has 40 constituents. Positive surprises 2024: Safran (+35%) — aerospace services demand post-COVID created record MRO (maintenance, repair, overhaul) revenue; AXA (+15%) — insurance pricing cycle in its favour; Sanofi (+25%) — Dupixent new indications. Negative surprises: Kering -37% was the most dramatic. Kering's Gucci brand (approximately 70% of Kering profits) suffered from: CEO Sabato De Sarno's design reset alienating existing customers while not yet attracting new ones; Chinese wholesale channel volume reduction; and Kering's greater Chinese luxury exposure versus Hermès (which limits China distribution deliberately). Airbus delivery shortfalls: engine shortage from CFM LEAP production constraints (GE/Safran JV) limited Airbus A320-family deliveries to approximately 735 in 2024 versus 720 target — supply chain crisis partially resolved but still below long-term demand.
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🔬 Methodology & Sources
CAC 40 Methodology
CAC 40 is the main French stock market index — the 40 largest capitalisation stocks on Euronext Paris. It is a price-only index by default; CAC 40 GR (Gross Return) and NR (Net Return) are the total return versions. All EUR de-DE. Sector composition: consumer discretionary/luxury (LVMH, Hermès, Kering, L'Oréal) approximately 20% weight; industrials approximately 15%; financials approximately 12%; energy (TotalEnergies) approximately 8%. France's electoral system creates periodic political risk — snap elections or legislative stalemates can cause significant market volatility as seen in 2024.
Formula
CAC_price_return = (end_level/start_level - 1) × 100 | Total_return = price_return + dividend_yield | CAGR = (total_return_index_end / start)^(1/years) - 1
CitationEuronext CAC 40 methodology; AMF annual report; Bloomberg French equity; MSCI France index.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
The CAC 40 delivered -2.2% price return in 2024 — the worst performance of any major European index, which made it the outlier in a broadly positive European equity year (DAX +18.9%, IBEX +14.8%, AEX +13.4%). Including dividends (approximately 3.5% yield), the total return was approximately +2.0% — essentially flat for the year. The three main headwinds were: Macron's snap election announcement (June 2024) causing French sovereign spread widening and equity market sell-off; luxury sector correction (LVMH -12%, Kering -37%) from Chinese luxury spending slowdown; and French fiscal deficit concerns (approximately 6% of GDP) that led Moody's to downgrade France to Aa3.
European luxury stocks (LVMH, Kering, Hermès) corrected sharply in 2024 due to a structural slowdown in Chinese luxury spending — the key growth engine for the sector over the past decade. Key factors: China property market collapse (Evergrande, Country Garden defaults) reduced household wealth and consumer confidence; Xi Jinping's 'common prosperity' rhetoric discouraged ostentatious spending; Japanese yen weakness created a unique dynamic (Chinese luxury shoppers flew to Japan to buy at 30-40% cheaper JPY prices, redirecting spending from mainland China stores to Japan). LVMH's H1 2024 results: Japan revenue +57% (yen cheap); Asia ex-Japan -6%. Kering was worst hit (-37%) because: Gucci (70% of Kering profits) was undergoing a brand reset; CEO Christian Courrèges's strategy of reducing wholesale channel volume in China removed revenue without yet replacing it with direct retail.
The CAC 40 index quoted on financial websites and news is a price-only index — it tracks only the change in constituent stock prices, not including dividends. The CAC 40 GR (Gross Return) or NR (Net Return) are the total return versions that reinvest dividends. The difference matters: CAC 40 dividend yield approximately 3.5%/year; over 10 years this compounds significantly. Example: CAC 40 price return 2024: -2.2%; CAC 40 GR total return 2024: approximately +2.0% (dividends of approximately 3.5% partially offset price decline). For long-term investment comparison, always use total return indices. In contrast: Germany's DAX is already a total return (performance) index — so DAX +18.9% includes dividends; CAC 40 reported returns need to add approximately 3.5%/year dividend yield for a fair comparison.
Top CAC 40 constituents by weight (Q3 2025): LVMH approximately 12% (luxury goods — Louis Vuitton, Christian Dior, Hennessy); Hermès approximately 10% (ultra-luxury leather goods — most exclusive luxury brand); TotalEnergies approximately 8% (global oil, LNG, renewables); Sanofi approximately 5% (biopharmaceuticals — Dupixent); L'Oréal approximately 5% (cosmetics — mass and luxury beauty); Safran approximately 4% (aerospace engines/equipment); Airbus approximately 4% (commercial aircraft — A320, A380); BNP Paribas approximately 4% (largest French bank); AXA approximately 4% (insurance); Kering approximately 3% (luxury — Gucci, Balenciaga, Saint Laurent). The CAC 40's heavy luxury weighting (LVMH + Hermès + Kering + L'Oréal ≈ 30%+) means the index is disproportionately affected by Chinese luxury demand trends relative to other European indices.
Options for investing in CAC 40 or French equities: (1) CAC 40 ETFs — BNP Paribas Easy CAC 40 UCITS ETF (C40; Euronext Paris; 0.25% TER); Amundi CAC 40 UCITS ETF (C40; 0.25% TER); Lyxor CAC 40 UCITS ETF (swap-based; 0.25% TER); (2) STOXX 600 / pan-European ETFs — include French companies; VWCE includes France as approximately 4% allocation; (3) Individual stocks via any EU broker with Euronext Paris access (DEGIRO, Trade Republic, Scalable Capital); (4) Dividend focus ETFs — iShares Euro Dividend ETF overweights French high-yield companies (TotalEnergies, BNP, AXA). Dividend withholding tax: France applies 12.5% reduced withholding tax on dividends to EU residents (standard 30% PFU applies to non-EU); this is below Germany's 26.4% but above UK's 0% — check double tax treaty for reclaiming any excess. CAC 40 ETF TERs at 0.25% are slightly higher than DAX ETFs (Xtrackers DBXD 0.09%) but reasonable for the exposure.
Sources & References
Data sourced from official institutional publications. Results are for informational purposes only. Last reviewed Jan 2026.
Data Disclaimer
Past CAC 40 returns do not predict future performance. CAC 40 is a price-return index — separate CAC 40 GR (Gross Return) includes dividends. EUR de-DE locale. Equity investment involves risk of capital loss.
Past CAC 40 returns do not predict future performance. CAC 40 is a price-return index — separate CAC 40 GR (Gross Return) includes dividends. EUR de-DE locale. Equity investment involves risk of capital loss.